What’s coming down the technology highway? We have absolutely no frickin’ idea, do we? Oh, sure, famous market analysts like Gene Munster predict Apple will have this or that within a year or three, but who’s keeping score? Where’s the scoreboard?
Munster is the same Munster who predicted Apple would design, build, and sell an Apple-branded television. Apple did. It’s called an iPhone. The bigger model is an iPad. There’s even a device to connect to non-Apple branded televisions. It’s called Apple TV. That’s as close as Apple has made it to television in the 21st century.
Simply put, the prediction game around Apple is much like haters gonna hate. You can’t stop them from hating. You can’t stop guessers from guesstimating what Apple will do in the future. They are fortunate that even in the age of the Wayback Machine, video recordings everywhere, nobody keeps score. Fear of being found to be predicting charlatan hasn’t stopped analysts and critics from, well, predictions.
Gene Munster thinks Apple’s Services is such a good business that Apple As A Service will be a future business driver. Oh, and augmented glasses. Apple Glasses.
How about some specific visions in the crystal ball.
AR is real and Apple will be a beneficiary. We expect Apple’s AR theme to play out in three phases. First, this fall we expect 2 to 3 new iPhones to join iPhone X with advanced optics for AR. Second, AR apps built using ARKit will slowly become the next gold rush for developers, led by games, ecommerce, and education. Last, we expect Apple will release Apple Glasses late in 2021
There you have it. Apple Glasses in barely three years. Lines will be forming soon at an Apple Store near you.
I don’t plan to be in the line and I can tell John C. Dvorak won’t be there, either, because he has doubts about prognosticators prognostications, too.
When you read about some invention like graphene, for example, and its imagined impact on the tech scene in the form of a prediction, bet against it and wait a decade.
Remember ‘the computer for the rest of us?‘ Apple’s Steve Jobs envisioned computing as an appliance. Instead, we have the amazingly complex devices which take time to keep running. Compare the effort you devote to Mac, iPad, and iPhone to the effort you devote to your refrigerator or dishwasher or dryer.
This appliance idea is not a prediction, it’s a prayer.
When it comes to Apple we can make predictions. Apple will introduce a new product. In a few years you’ll see them everywhere. Mac. iPod. iPod earbuds. iPhone. iPad. Watch. AirPods. Good products take time to become mainstream. Apple has an envious record of hits but as to predictions, it’s better to be vague and general than specific.
Apple Glasses 2021.
I got it booked in Calendar.